Next Chance at Snow

Highs below freezing through Saturday.

That next clipper system I was watching will come earlier than I expected. It will be here Friday night and Saturday morning, leaving us with one to two fresh inches of powder.

Prime snow-football playing conditions will be Saturday afternoon; all leftover slush will have frozen, and will be covered with a fresh coating of snow. It will still be cold, so nothing will have melted.

Another update coming later in the week.

Update

Not to brag, but Parkway and Rockwood both had Snow Days Tuesday, and I measured six inches of snow at my house in Chesterfield.

It will be cold for a few days, and we have a chance to get another inch or two of snow Saturday and Saturday night.

Mid-Storm Update

The low pressure system slowed down sagnificantly, which caused all rain today. Tonight and tomorrow, the cold front moves in, and we get snow. How much? 3-4 inches by the time you wake up tomorrow, and 6-7 inches by the time this storm system moves out Tuesday night.

Even after the snow storm, the snow will be on the ground for a minimum of 5 days, as Arctic air will keep things very cold in St. Louis for a while.

With this much snow expected, I have decided to update and increase the snow day oddsmakers (Rockwood/Parkway).

Chances of no school Tuesday: 80%

Chances of an early dismissal Tuesday (if not a snow day): 95%

Chances of a snow day Wednesday: 65%

Thanks for visiting, and happy sledding. 

Last Pre-Storm Forecast
Some ice and freezing rain or sleet tomorrow morning. Cold rain in the afternoon, and snow between Monday night and Tuesday night. Chesterfield can expect 4-6 inches of snow by this storm is gone, late Tuesday night. I am increasing the odds of a snow day Tuesday to 75%, and an early dismissal (if not a snow day) to 85%. These predictions are for the Rockwood and Parkway School Districts.

New Feature

I have decided to add a new feature to my weather blog: Snow Day Oddsmakers. I will give the percentage chance of inclement weather affecting school in the Parkway and Rockwood School Districts.

First ever Snow Day Oddsmakers:

Chances of no school Monday: 30%

Chances of an early dismissal Monday (if not a snow day): 35%

Chances of no school Tuesday: 65%

Chances of an early dismissal Tuesday (if not a snow day): 70% 

Chances of no school Wednesday: 65%

Another weather update later tonight.

More Details

This is a very hard storm to forecast because it has not yet come together. Most St. Louis storms form over the West coast, and therefore can be easily tracked. This system will combine over St. Louis, so foreacasts are very sketchy. 

 My best guess:

This next storm system will come in waves; first some snow (not too much), then sleet/freezing rain/ than possibly some rain more freezing rain, then back to snow as the system leaves. This will all happen between very early Monday morning through late Tuesday night. Our best shot a good amount of accumulating snow will be near the end, Tuesday night. 1-6 inches possible.

 I will have another update this evening.

Developing Storm System
A low pressure system will combine with an arctic air mass and some southern moisture, and to be honest, everyone is pretty much clueless. There will be a good deal of precipitation between Sunday night and Tuesday night, but it could be rain, sleet, freezing rain, or snow, or a combination of all four. Up to an inch of ice is possible, same for freezing rain, and two to six inches of snow, mostly coming at the end of this system, towards Tuesday evening, are expected. But honestly, it is too early to make any definite calls for this "wintery mix." An update on this developing winter weather in another blog tomorrow afternoon.

Welcome to Aaron's Weather Blog
Hi! I'm Aaron Malin, an amateur meteorologist. I will do my best to combine my personal experience and expertise, along with The Weather Channel, the NOAA, and multiple different local media weather sources to provide a more accurate and personalized weather forecast for St. Louis County, or, more specifically, Chesterfield. Please feel free to post any comment or weather-related question you have, and I will do my best to answer it. Thanks for visiting!